Hey, Joe Biden... try this:
Considering the "Why" of Biden
In a recent polite conversation with a friend whose intelligence I respect and value-structure I admire, there was a disagreement on how we see the 2024 election unfolding. At least we weren’t in sync with how Biden might position himself to beat Trump. We agreed that fear of a second Trump term might not be enough to turn out votes, nor could Biden count on a Trump conviction, to influence those very few undecided voters who might be swayed by voting for a convict. While it’s hard to believe we’re in a situation that the last sentence describes, here we are. My friend is an attorney and is convinced, based on his read and those of his law firm’s other partners, that Trump is in a substantial position of risk in terms of conviction, despite what most people might believe. He also pointed to the Dobbs ruling as a point of departure for the most critical voting blocks in the country’s swing states: suburban women and Gen Zs.
Abortion will matter to women and Gen Z more than the press is recognizing. Those two groups are filled with people who have either had abortions or with people who know those who’ve had abortions. It’s a gift to Biden and down-ballot Dems if they play that hand well.
To be fair, neither of us is convinced that the Dems can capitalize on this issue with the kind of aplomb needed to beat their rivals. Then again, we also agreed that the Republican disarray is vast and deep, with infighting and incoherence beyond their inability to unify as a party, let alone run the House.
What we did agree on, as the conversation deepened, was our amazement that Biden isn’t finding his legs when it comes to re-election. Here’s what goes unnoticed and, as Evan Osnos’ smart New Yorker piece point out should be repeated by his campaign and its surrogates:
Violent crime has dropped to nearly a fifty-year low,
unemployment is below four per cent, and,
in January the S. & P. 500 and the Dow hit record highs.
More Americans than ever have health insurance, and
the country is producing more energy than at any previous moment in its history.
Trump faces ninety-one criminal counts, has suggested that if he is elected he will fire as many as fifty thousand civil servants and replace them with loyalists, deputize the National Guard as a mass-deportation force, and root out what he calls “the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country.”
On a side note, I just read Ruth Ben-Ghiat’s book, The Strongmen, and was taken with how much Trump can remind us of Mussolini.
So while I may look at points 1 through 5 as important metrics, they are ultimately window-dressing that can be influenced, but rarely determined by a president. Point 6, on the other hand, should inspire doubts, if not fear, in an electorate even if it forgets history.